Boosting Basket Size via Predictive Analysis

Bridging Stakeholder Interests
March 15, 2026

Tasks

Research, UX / UI, Implementation

Tools

Figma, After Effects, Qualtrics, Maze.co

The Mission

Design and validate a new recommendation feature for an international e-commerce giant in South America and South Asia.


The Core Challenge

Increase "items per order" by introducing a new Market Basket Analysis algorithm without adding friction to the "Buy Now" journey.


Key Outcome

60% higher conversion preference for the new algorithm and positive user sentiment toward a new "Interstitial Recommendation" pop-up.


Context & Constraints

  • The Problem: High shipping costs often exceed the value of small (1-2 item) baskets, leading to cart abandonment or low profitability.
  • Technical Constraint: Must handle "Multiple Seller" shipping complexities and product variations (size/color).

  • Target Audience: High-speed shoppers who often skip the cart page entirely.


Strategic Discovery

Competitive & Journey Mapping
  • Competitive Insight: Top players vary recommendation visuals based on where the user is in the journey. This informed our decision to test different UI for PDP vs. Cart.

  • The "Gap" in the Journey: Mapping revealed that users skipping the cart missed all current recommendations. This led to the "Buy Now" Pop-up hypothesis.


The Solution: A Two-Pronged Approach

  • Integration A: The Passive Approach (PDP & Cart)

    • Implementing the "Statistical Affinity" algorithm in standard feeds.

  • Integration B: The Active Approach (The Interstitial Pop-up)

    • The Bold Move: Adding a recommendation step after clicking "Buy Now" but before payment.

    • Design Fix: Addressed the "Variation" problem by allowing users to select size/color directly within the recommendation widget to prevent back-and-forth navigation.


Validation

Unmoderated Test on Maze.co

"Data over Opinions" — We tested 19 users to validate if the new algorithm actually performed better than the legacy one.

Mission Goal Result
Algorithm Head-to-Head New vs. Old Algorithm 60% preferred the New Algorithm's suggestions.
Placement vs. Product Does page position matter? No. Users chose based on relevance, not how much scroll was needed.
The Friction Test Did the Pop-up annoy users? Positive impact. Users found it helpful, not intrusive.

Final Impact & Reflection

  • The Win: Proved that a "disruptive" pop-up can actually improve UX if the recommendations are highly relevant.

  • Business Value: The new algorithm is set to increase "items per basket," directly tackling the shipping-cost-to-item-value ratio.

  • Personal Growth: Delivering a full research-to-prototype cycle in under 14 days required high-tempo collaboration with the BI (Business Intelligence) team.

Boosting Basket Size via Predictive Analysis
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